That is the Question!

Despite incredible advances in technology, each year for the past 122, we've turned to a fury rodent to determine if winter continues for another six weeks or an early spring is in store.  According to Punxsutawney Phil, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators, it's six more weeks of winter!  Bright and early this morning, Phil was dragged from his burrow, hoisted high in the sky, and despite an overcast day, saw his shadow! 

While Phil is the world's most famous groundhog, he's not the only one.  Here in the south, we put a lot of weight in General Beauregard Lee of Atlanta, GA and he did NOT see his shadow foretelling an early spring!  So, who's right? No one knows for sure, but over the next 10 days, they'll both be right.  Before I get into that forecast, here's what all the famous groundhogs from around the country saw, or did not see, today:

Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania             6 More Weeks of Winter
General Beauregard Lee, Georgia           Early Spring
Sir Walter Wally, North Carolina                6 More Weeks of Winter
French Creek Freddie, West Virginia       Early Spring
Buckeye Chuck, Ohio                                  6 More Weeks of Winter
Malverne Mel, Long Island                         Early Spring
Woodstock Willie, Illinios                           6 More Weeks of Winter
Jimmy the Groundhog, Indiana                6 More Weeks of Winter
Staten Island Chuck, Staten Island         Early Spring
Smith Lake Jake, Alabama                       6 More Weeks of Winter

The concensus seems to point toward another 6 weeks of winter!  For what it's worth, I stepped out earlier today and did NOT see my shadow.  With that said, I can assure you, I put very litte faith in shadow forecasting!

Groundhogs aside, let's talk real science.  We are in for a major temperature swing over the next 7 days.  Take a look at the first map.  Notice the huge trough along the eastern seaboard.  This is a direct flow from Canada and promises to usher in cold air for the Tuesday through Thursday time period.  By Friday (Map 2), the pattern undergoes dramatic changes and a ridge builds over the southeast.  This typicall y bring a broad southwesterly flow to the Carolinas guaranteeing a huge warm up. How big?  We go from a low of 20° Wednesday night to highs approaching 70° by Sunday!  Once it warms up, it may stay that way for a while.  Long range forecasts (Map 3) for February 12th show a bit of a ridge over the southeast that would indicate warmer than normal temperatures.  The flow is also from the west-southwest so that may mean more rain. Is the upcoming cold shot winter's last gasp?  No one knows for sure, but at least for now, we may have an extended period of relative warmth once the arctic air retreats Friday.