The yellow track illustrates the possible but uncertain path that the hurricane may follow.
Ten years ago, the National Hurricane Center switched from a three day forecast to a five day forecast, which gives us more time to prepare but also gives us more time to worry.
Myrtle Beach resident Kristen Lang says the five day forecast puts people on edge unnecessarily. "This far out the storm could be a hundred to two hundred miles from where they're predicting it to go," says Lang. "So I think it makes people overreact a little bit."
But Gary Little who's been through hurricanes in North Carolina and now lives in Myrtle Beach says an overreaction is better than not preparing. "I think we need to be uneasy. We need to be prepared to leave if it comes up," says Little. "To say I'm going to stay here and have a hurricane party is ridiculous."
Conway resident Keith Gustafson says the sooner the better. "Oh absolutely no question about it. You have to be prepared for these hurricanes and everything," he says.
"The five day forecast is as accurate as the three day forecast was just ten years ago, and [The National Hurricane Center] is already looking into the future going to a seven day forecast in the next five to ten years," says NewsChannel 15's Chief Meteorologist Ed Piotrowski.
Piotrowski is American Meteorologist Society certified and has worked on the Carolina coast for more than 20 years. He says informing of a hurricane threat as soon as possible is beneficial though it does have a downside.
"The cons of course are that there is a lot of error the further you go out in time. When you get out beyond five and seven days, the average error can easily be over 300 miles."
Also, with the cone of uncertainty (that yellow area you see on the forecast map showing the storm's track), Piotrowski says most people misunderstand its purpose. Instead of using it as a guide to where the hurricane may make landfall, people often use as a definite forecast.
"[The National Hurricane Center] knows that the specific forecast is going to be wrong as you go out over a specific time. They want to give you a general area of where the hurricane is going. That is really what people need to concentrate on. Not that skinny black line that you see all the time, but many people do anyway."
But the cone of uncertainty is not accurate enough to go by all the time either.
"The statistics show that only 67 percent of the time is the hurricane going to be in that cone. That means one third of the time that hurricane is going to be outside that cone. So there's going to be a lot of error when you go out into the future," Piotrowski said.
Which means, even with advances in technology, hurricane predictions are just that...predictions.
"Just three days ago the forecast cone was over South Florida and that has steadily moved up the Eastcoast and just three days later we've gone from a South Florida landfall to a Cape Hatteras landfall. That's the kind of error we're talking about even with this technology," said Piotrowski.
Do you feel longer weather forecasts give you peace of mind or unnecessary worry?
