A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a blog that explained why the Coastal Carolina board of trustees gave Dr. David DeCenzo the power to leave the Big South Conference if another invite were to come along. In case you missed it, you can read it HERE.
In my last entry, there was speculation about where some of the key pieces were going in the CAA/Big South. There have been four major developments that have advanced this game of musical chairs:
George Mason announced it will not be going to the Atlantic 10 and remain in the CAA
Liberty announced that it is making the move from FCS to FBS football and will take all of its sports along with it out of the Big South
VCU announced it is on its way to the Atlantic 10
Old Dominion leaves CAA for Conference USA
The CAA feared losing George Mason, VCU and Old Dominion and lost two out of three. Here's a look at the current breakdown of schools in the CAA.
ALL SPORTS CAA TEAMS
Delaware, James Madison, Towson, William & Mary
FOOTBALL ONLY
Maine, New Hampshire, Villanova, Richmond
NON-FOOTBALL (Basketball and all other sports)
Drexel, George Mason, Hofstra, UNC-Wilmington, Northeastern
When the dust settles, the CAA has eight football members, nine basketball members. Where does the Colonial go from here? It becomes directional. They can look to the north and ask Stony Brook, Maine and New Hampshire to leave the America East and become all sports members at the CAA, or they can turn to the South which is where Coastal Carolina comes into play. There is also a scenario where Stony Brook could join the Colonial as a football only member and remain in the America East in all other sports. There's also the basketball faction that could turn to the Southern Conference and pluck the College of Charleston and Davidson.
Now that the movement has begun, it seems obvious that the Colonial Athletic Association is going to extend invites to new members and there's no question that Coastal Carolina and Stony Brook are under consideration. There are so many different combinations that the CAA can use to survive.
What's the worst case scenario for Coastal Carolina? That's easy. The CAA takes just Stony Brook and Liberty makes its inevitable announcement of joining the MAC or Sun Belt or Confererence USA. And the Colonial turns to a Davidson/ C of C basketball option and the SoCon stays pat with its football membership. That leaves Coastal in a Big South football conference without the top two teams and quite possibly a league that loses its automatic bid to the playoffs and the Big South in basketball, baseball, etc without Liberty.
The Big South faces the distinct possibility of losing Stony Brook in football and both Liberty and Coastal Carolina in all sports. There are 14 FCS conferences. The Colonial is rated #1 in RPI, the Big South #13 (that's with Stony Brook, Liberty and CCU). Even if Old Dominion leaves, the CAA will remain one of the top FCS football conferences in America with the current members. From a men's basketball perspecitve, the Colonial was ranked 14th in conference RPI with VCU, George Mason, etc while the Big South was 27th. It goes without saying that Liberty leaving the Big South is a huge blow to the league and its members.
This is why Coastal was wise to give Dr. DeCenzo the ability to make the move to the CAA or any other conference if they come calling. At this stage, the game of musical chairs has officially started. The song is not over yet and CCU is going to try and get into the seat before the music ends. If the Colonial extends a chair, the Chanticleers will sit down quickly.
